The BJP is focusing on corruption and misgovernance as key election issues, while it remains uncertain whether the Congress can turn the contest into a three-way battle.
Following a seven-phase general election and several state assembly polls this year, India's relentless election cycle is set to resume in February with Delhi's assembly elections.
Despite being a contest for just 70 seats, the stakes are high for all parties due to the symbolic importance of the national capital. As the Aam Aadmi Party's strongest bastion, this election holds particular significance, even if it involves forming a government with restricted powers.
Buoyed by the results of the last two assembly elections, the AAP appears confident about its prospects in the upcoming polls. The party has even decided against forming an alliance with its INDIA bloc partner, the Congress. However, to secure a third term, AAP must address several critical challenges.
Key party leaders, including former Chief Minister and party chief Kejriwal, are facing multiple corruption allegations. These accusations, along with stringent bail conditions imposed on Kejriwal, compelled the party to appoint Atishi as an interim chief minister. This strategic adjustment is part of AAP's broader plan to retain power in the upcoming elections.
This situation presents a strategic opportunity for both the BJP and the Congress to target AAP. The party, which transitioned from being a political "disruptor" to a mainstream contender during the 2020 assembly elections, now faces increasing criticism.
AAP's anti-corruption image has taken a hit amid accusations of poor governance. The party has been widely criticized for its handling of issues such as water shortages, garbage management, and waterlogging, which have amplified dissatisfaction with Delhi's civic infrastructure. This criticism is particularly significant as AAP also holds power in the city's municipal bodies.
In response, AAP has attributed these challenges to interference from the centre-appointed Lieutenant Governor's office, accusing it of obstructing the functioning of both the Delhi government and municipal bodies. The ongoing power struggle between the central government and the Delhi administration has reached unprecedented levels, straining governance in the capital.
While AAP's core supporters might accept the party's claims of LG interference as a reason for misgovernance, this explanation doesn’t resonate equally across all voter groups. The party frequently takes credit for the successes of the Delhi government and municipal bodies, yet swiftly shifts blame to the LG’s office for any shortcomings. This selective accountability is viewed by many as a politically calculated move.
Despite these hurdles, AAP still has several factors working in its favor that could boost its chances in the upcoming elections.
Factors in AAP's Favor
AAP stands to benefit from Delhi's distinct voting pattern, where voters often make different choices in national and assembly elections. Despite failing to secure any of Delhi's seven parliamentary seats in the 2024 general elections—all won by the BJP—the party is aware that a segment of the electorate supports it in state polls, even if they prefer its rival at the national level.
AAP’s strategy of offering ‘freebies’ through various welfare schemes, combined with a strong party network to highlight these benefits, could help counter any anti-incumbency sentiment. This approach has proven effective in other states, where several incumbent governments have been re-elected. Measures like free electricity, water, and bus rides for women are central to AAP’s plan to consolidate support from its core voter base.
AAP's strategy relies heavily on creating what political commentator Hilal Ahmed refers to as a "charitable state" rather than establishing a robust welfare framework. Regardless of the intent, such measures have previously helped the party secure a significant segment of transactional electoral support.
Additionally, AAP is banking on the arrest of its top leaders to generate a ‘sympathy vote,’ framing the actions as part of a BJP-led central government ‘witchhunt.’ Indian electoral history offers several examples, including Jharkhand, where voters have rallied behind leaders accused of corruption, viewing the charges as politically motivated. For months, AAP has been actively working to channel this sympathy to bolster its electoral prospects.
Against this backdrop, the BJP's campaign is focused on highlighting AAP's missteps and the allegations against its leadership. The ongoing series of nukkad sabhas, which are aimed at attacking the current government, is part of a broader strategy that will be ramped up in the coming weeks. The BJP hopes to align its campaign so that any increase in its vote share translates into a proportional rise in the number of assembly seats. In the 2020 assembly elections, the BJP secured 38.5% of the vote and won eight seats, a marked improvement from the 32.1% it received in 2015, when it won only three seats.
Meanwhile, Congress, which ruled Delhi under Sheila Dikshit for three terms, is still struggling to define a clear strategy. Its Delhi unit has been at odds with the national leadership over the idea of forming an alliance with AAP for the Lok Sabha elections. Senior leaders like Ajay Maken have been outspoken in criticizing AAP for its alleged corruption and mismanagement, diverging from the national party's approach of supporting AAP as a victim of central government targeting.
Congress is also looking to regain support in the capital. The party must avoid repeating the mistakes of 2020, when its campaign was largely invisible despite contesting the elections. The future of Congress' Delhi unit will depend on whether its leadership can separate the dynamics of the INDIA bloc from local rivalries in the capital.
In the coming weeks, the tone of the Delhi campaigns will reflect the fusion of local and national politics, with the local focus inevitably drawing significant national attention. The contest appears to be a bipolar one between the incumbent AAP and the BJP, its main challenger. However, it remains to be seen if Congress can turn the race into a triangular contest in a substantial number of constituencies, which could reshape the competitive landscape of Delhi politics.
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